Recently, “Uncertainty” and “Changing” have become… “normal” to global economy, especially to constant growth pace of Asia – Pacific region in 2012.
Suffering from Counter-winds
One of the main traits is that problems occur to big developed economics. Global Economic Trend Analysis has shortly recovered in V-shape from financial crisis in 2008. Global economy came to its second crisis phase from 2011 due to European debt crisis and gloomy prospect of American economy.
Delineating area for those threats, forecasting their effects and presenting serial policy options help nations develop wholly and substantially regardless of difficulties, which is the focal point of Economic and Social Research of Asia and the Pacific in 2012.
Surveys show that “counter wind” would continuously “blow” the Economy growth of Asia – Pacific off its fast pace, down to 6.5% this year. Reduction of demand of commodity export; increase in capital costs together with relaxation of monetary policies and increase in Trade Protectionism in developed countries have contributed to slowing this progress down.
However, the growth pace of Asia – Pacific region will continue to surpass all other regions with its “outstanding performances” as a basis of stabilization and the most active area of global economy. For instance, in 2012 trading among Asia – Pacific countries has helped other areas develop, especially Africa and Latin America, aiming to reduce dependence on slow paced developed economies.
Moreover, Asian developed countries continue to grow fast. In particular, China may grow by 8.6% and India expects to grow from 6.9% to 7.5%. The growth pace of such regions as Southeast Asia can lightly increase due to strong recover of Thailand after its historic floods in 2011. In addition, annual inflation rate of Asia – Pacific is expected to reduce from 6.1% to 4.8% in general.
Specific difficulties
The biggest threat to Asia – Pacific economy in 2012 is the confusion of European debt crisis or collapse of European Monetary Union. This worst script would lead to the loss of region’s export revenue by 390 billion USD per year. Developing countries or small-scaled developed ones might lose 10% of their export revenues. That perspective might cause region’s growth rate reduce by 1.3% and make 22 million of people’s living conditions more difficult with their income of 2 USD/day.
The second threat is the increase in prices in general, which remarkably affects Asian region this year. High prices and consecutive changes are becoming…“normal”. Therefore, nations and regions have to adjust their economics to adapt to the situation.
An important step of “anti-shocks” for Asian economies is solving problems about increasing unemployment, unemployment, and increasing discrimination. It is clearly a step - by - step rebalancing process which helps local consumption be bigger; and a motivation to accelerate growth pace and productivity, to create more jobs and equal income.
Another difficulty is balancing between growth pace and price stabilization, which requires many of anti - inflation acts beyond monetary policies; facing the capital flow, especially increasing current liabilities, facing changes in exchange rate and solving the effects of disasters and changing climate.
In fact, it is still a fortunate that Asia – Pacific region is facing confusion and instability of global economy at its relatively strong stand. High speed of GDP growth rate, big financial backup, and strength of economic combination make the region’s perspective brighter than most of the others. Giving reasonable selections to create recovery possibilities and to follow a substantial road for common prosper helps Asia – Pacific region be ready for its development in global confusion in the best way.
Source: World and Vietnam
